Posted: December 16, 2024

• Solana lags as other alts shine, giving “shorts” the upper hand.
• If bulls act swiftly, the tide could turn—but timing is everything.

The resilience of Solana [SOL] bulls is being seriously tested. Despite three attempts in less than a month to break free from a downward trend, the price continues to struggle, moving further down.

Looking at its daily chart, it’s clear just how impactful the “Trump pump” was for investors, pushing Solana to a new all-time high of $264 after three years of stagnation.

After such a powerful rally, one might expect long-term HODLers to cash out their SOL holdings, but surprisingly, that’s not the case.

Instead, it’s the unwavering conviction of these long-term investors that’s fueling speculation of an imminent rebound.

Yet, as SOL has already erased much of its post-election gains, the threat of a deeper pullback looms large. Even the most steadfast HODLers may soon feel the pressure.

It may only be a matter of time before the weight of this downtrend forces a decision.

The clock is ticking

From this chart, the winners of the election cycle are crystal clear, as shown by the 30-day percentage change.

Just one week after the results were announced, a wave of euphoria swept through the market, pushing certain assets to impressive gains. 

Ripple [XRP] stands out as a major winner, soaring above a key psychological level with a triple-digit gain. More impressively, it has overtaken Solana, claiming the spot as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Clearly, Solana has lagged behind its rivals, but that doesn’t mean all hope is lost.

Speculation surrounding a massive rebound is growing, with some even predicting that SOL could hit a $500 price target before the end of Q1 next year.

Given Solana’s price action, particularly in the last three weeks, it’s understandable to view the $500 target as somewhat of an exaggeration.

However, we can’t overlook the fact that Solana’s volatility has historically paved the way for some big gains. While it’s too early to make any definitive predictions, it’s clear that anything is possible.

So, should you go “long” on Solana?

The past three weeks have been some of the most volatile for SOL, with bulls and bears locked in a fierce tug-of-war. After dipping to $236, bulls staged an impressive comeback, sparking a 5% surge in just three days.

Futures traders jumped on the action, driving Open Interest (OI) to an all-time high of $6.05 billion.

But the rally didn’t last, and OI has since dropped to $5.16 billion. So, if you’re “long” on SOL, tread carefully.

While the current price might seem tempting, SOL has struggled to draw the same attention as other alts are stealing the spotlight.

Still, hope isn’t lost. Long-term holders are standing firm, and with the right push from major players, a short-squeeze could flip the narrative.

Is your portfolio green? Check out the SOL Profit Calculator

With shorts dominating the perpetual market and taking advantage of weak accumulation, this could turn the tide in SOL’s favor.

But time is running out. If the bulls can’t take charge soon, long-term holders might lose faith, opening the door to a dip below $200 – a potential opportunity for strategic buyers to re-enter the market.