Bitcoin may rise to a record high above $125,000 or fall toward $77,000 in the first quarter — and the key lies in whether President-elect Donald Trump will follow through on his promises to the crypto industry soon after his inauguration, one analyst said.

Bitcoin BTCUSD, the largest cryptocurrency, has been wobbling below the $100,000 milestone for the past few days, after it reached a record high at $108,309 on Dec. 17, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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Based on the Elliott wave theory, a technical analysis tool, bitcoin is expected to see a decline toward $89,000 before it exceeds $125,000 in the first quarter of 2025, according to John Glover, chief investment officer at crypto lending platform Ledn and a former managing director at Barclays Investment Bank.

The Elliott wave theory suggests that an asset’s price in each cycle consists of five waves in the direction of the main trend and three corrective waves against the trend. Each corrective wave follows a wave in the direction of the main trend.

“We saw a dip in bitcoin below $92,000 earlier this week so we might have already completed the corrective wave before heading toward $125,000,” Glover said in a phone interview.

If bitcoin breaks above $125,000, it may experience another pullback before it heads toward a cycle top near $160,000, Glover said.

Bitcoin may see a pullback before Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, as investors take profits, Glover said.

Crypto bulls expect the regulatory environment to become more favorable under Trump’s presidency. They are watching if the incoming president will soon deliver on promises to the crypto industry, notably his vow to build a strategic bitcoin reserve in the U.S., though Trump hasn’t detailed any specific plans.

If Trump doesn’t show any actions to follow through with his promises in the early days — especially in his first 100 days in office — bitcoin may see a pullback, Glover said. Politicians and analysts often use the first 100 days of an administration as a yardstick to measure the likely effectiveness and impact of incoming U.S. presidents.