Key Notes

• Market dynamics show contrasting forces as institutional ETF purchases reach break-even points while accumulation trends maintain bullish momentum.
• Standard Chartered identifies 'convexity risks' from potential ETF unwinding, setting an $80,000 price target despite long-term $200K prediction.
• Technical indicators reveal neutral market sentiment with RSI at 49.54, suggesting an imminent directional breakout amid balanced buyer-seller activity.

Leading digital asset Bitcoin BTC $96 493 24h volatility: 2.0% Market cap: $1.91 T Vol. 24h: $51.69 B is at risk of a massive crash, according to Standard Chartered, a British multinational bank with over $850 billion in total assets. The firm’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, states that BTC faces a potential 10% price drop if investors see a “clean break below $90,000.”

The crypto market saw Bitcoin drop below $90,000 for the first time since November on Monday, when the daily low stood at $89,256. However, immediately the buyers took over, and the digital asset was back trading above $90,000. According to data from CoinMarketCap, BTC is trading at $96,017.86 at the time of writing, up 4.53% in the past 24 hours. Tuesday’s high stands at $97,352.66, and a retest of $100,000 seems likely.

Bitcoin at $80K?

According to a report from TheBlock, Kendrick explained that Bitcoin faces “convexity risks,” which stem from the increased possibility of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) unwinding. The outflow of capital could cause BTC to crash as low as $80,000 in the short term, claims the multinational bank’s executive.

Kendrick said in a note on Tuesday that “a clean break below $90,000 for bitcoin would open up 10% of further downside near-term, to the low $80,000s,” while adding:

“Prices of all other digital assets would likely follow, and once that retracement has run its course, we would recommend accumulating longs again.”

If Bitcoin loses $90,000, the broader digital asset sector will follow, predicted Kendrick, printing at least 10% in losses. The Standard Chartered executive further stated that “spot bitcoin ETF purchases since the US election are now only breaking even, and the risk is that forced or panic selling adds to the current macro-driven sell-off.”

The recent Bitcoin purchases by MicroStrategy and US investors via spot BTC ETFs have broken even at current prices. Kendrick highlighted that “the risk of mark-to-market pain is building” in the short term, but in the long term, BTC is expected to hit $200,000 by the end of the year.

A Deeper BTC Analysis

A deeper Bitcoin analysis shows that the accumulation of Bitcoin continues to follow an uptrend. The cryptocurrency’s accumulation skyrocketed since October 2024 and remains high since, suggesting that investors are overall bullish on BTC.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads a value of 49.54 for Bitcoin, which means that the buyers and the sellers are evenly matched, and a breakout to either side can be expected in the near future.

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

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