Bitcoin's Shaky Start to 2025: Buy the ETFs on the Dip?

01/15/2025 22:03
Bitcoin's Shaky Start to 2025: Buy the ETFs on the Dip?

The cryptocurrency market is off to a wobbly start in the year 2025, weighed down by speculation that the Fed may have limited scope for further interest rate cuts.

The cryptocurrency market is off to a wobbly start in the year 2025, weighed down by speculation that the Fed may have limited scope for further interest rate cuts. Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000 on Monday, only to cross the $97,000 mark on Tuesday. So far this month, Bitcoin is up 3.8%. However, some smaller tokens, including Ether, have been under pressure this month. Ether, in particular, is off 3.2%.

Investor sentiment has shifted toward the likelihood of a prolonged pause in Fed rate changes due to robust U.S. economic performance. Concerns have also emerged over the potential inflationary impacts of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariff and immigration policies, with his inauguration set for next week.

Rising Treasury yields have cooled enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, a winning spree offset somewhat by Trump’s promise to make the United States a global hub for digital assets. His plans include crypto-friendly regulations and reversing Biden-era restrictions, but these policies are yet to stabilize the broader market.

The surge in Treasury yields has reverberated through financial markets, triggering selloffs in both crypto and equities. The S&P 500 index has surrendered much of the gains it made after Trump’s election win on Nov. 5. The S&P 500 is off 0.4% so far this year (as of Jan. 14, 2025).

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $108,316 last month.. Its post-Election Day rally has moderated to about 40%. Katie Stockton, a technical analyst at Fairlead Strategies LLC, observed that Bitcoin remains in a "corrective phase." She indicated that chart trends suggest the possibility of testing downside support near $87,500, as quoted on Bloomberg.

Over the past four trading days, U.S. spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen net outflows of approximately $1.6 billion, according to Bloomberg data. This trend indicates the market’s cautious sentiment as investors await further clarity on the policy and economic landscape.

But then, there are hopes. Richard Galvin, co-founder of hedge fund DACM, noted, “higher bond yields and dollar strength have put material pressure on risk assets. However, Trump may prioritize crypto-specific executive orders soon after taking office,” quoted on Bloomberg.

Overall, despite current volatility, optimism persists among crypto enthusiasts. For instance, MicroStrategy Inc. MSTR recently marked its 10th successive weekly Bitcoin purchase, amassing a stockpile worth approximately $41 billion.

Due to Bitcoin’s massive popularity since 2024, asset management firms are innovating further by integrating crypto and derivatives into exchange-traded packages. Calamos announced the launch of a new structured protection ETF aimed at providing exposure to Bitcoin's upside while offering 100% downside protection.

Slated to launch later this month, the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBOJ) builds on the Chicago area firm's suite of exchange-traded funds that offer 100% downside protection on the S&P 500 Index, the Russell 2000 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index (read: Bitcoin ETFs Soar in 2024, Structured Protection ETFs in the Cards?).

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently equated the cryptocurrency Bitcoin to gold rather than the U.S. dollar, stating, “People use Bitcoin as a speculative asset. It’s like gold — it’s just virtual and digital.” Interestingly, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin-based ETF iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT (having launched earlier in 2024) now has more than $50 billion in net assets. That’s more than BlackRock’s iShares Gold Trust IAU ETF, which made its debut in 2005 and has $33 billion in assets (read: Is Bitcoin the Digital Gold? ETFs in Focus).

Against this backdrop, investors can buy the dip in Bitcoin. But then, investors should not be avid Bitcoin buyers. BlackRock said no more than 2% of one’s portfolio should be invested in Bitcoin, as quoted on Fortune. This 2% weighting causes a similar amount of risk as the Magnificent Seven — a group of mega-cap tech stocks — in a typical portfolio consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.

Instead of Bitcoin, you can also invest in Bitcoin ETFs that have been seeing immense success this year. These are Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF GBTC, IBIT, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust FBTC, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ARKB and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF BITB.

Holding Bitcoin-based ETFs instead of Bitcoin itself offers several benefits. Bitcoin ETFs are traded on regulated stock exchanges. Buying and selling an ETF is simpler compared to exploring cryptocurrency exchanges. ETFs are often structured to be more tax-efficient than directly holding Bitcoin. With an ETF, investors can avoid risks like wallet hacking or losing private keys.

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iShares Gold Trust (IAU): ETF Research Reports

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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