Posted: February 21, 2025

• Bitcoin bear market could commence if BTC breaks below key support levels.
• With BTC bouncing from $94K to $96,200, volatility is high.

With Bitcoin [BTC] briefly dipping under $94K before rebounding to $97,200, volatility remains high. 

In this climate, a potential Bitcoin bear market risk lingers if key investor groups, currently sitting on unrealized profits, start selling.

Key levels to watch

If BTC loses momentum, a drop below $89,300 could trigger profit-taking among short-term holders (1,000+ BTC, held <155 days) whales, increasing sell pressure.

However, the key level to watch remains $58,000 – the realized price of miner whales (wallets of mining companies that hold over 1,000 BTC).

Historically, breaking below this mark has confirmed Bitcoin bear market cycles, making it a critical long-term support.

While BTC holds a safe margin for now, sustained volatility could test these levels. Holding above them is crucial to maintaining bullish market structure.

Will bulls prevent a Bitcoin bear market?

Despite a hawkish macro backdrop in the U.S., bulls have avoided a Bitcoin bear market by defending the $90K level for over a month, signaling strong demand.

However, prolonged consolidation near resistance suggests a potential liquidity trap.

If BTC breaches $99K without strong spot demand, leveraged long positions could close down, triggering liquidation cascades.

A drop back to $90K would then be a key test. Losing this level could push BTC toward $89,300, where STH whales may begin offloading, increasing downside pressure.

While a Bitcoin bear market isn’t confirmed, weak ETF inflows, fading FOMO, and declining network activity could trigger a sharp reversal, wiping out billions in leverage.