The GENIUS Act is back on the Senate floor, and while it is being framed as a modest, bipartisan move toward stablecoin regulation, not everyone is convinced it is on track. Crypto lawyer John Deaton thinks failure to pass it now could freeze real progress on crypto laws until after the midterm U.S. elections — and maybe longer.

Deaton, who represents XRP holders, is not predicting collapse, but he is looking at the political math. With the narrowest House majority since 1931 and the usual midterm power shift looming, he sees a small window closing fast. If the GENIUS Act, which he calls uncontroversial and in the national interest, cannot clear the Senate, more complex crypto bills do not stand a chance.

He also points out what is missing: the bill cuts out interest payments for stablecoin holders, a move aimed at keeping banks comfortable. That concession, he says, is less about policy and more about appeasing the banking lobby. 

The result? A bill that avoids rocking the boat but leaves retail investors on the sidelines.

Apple of discord

There is an opinion that the revised GENIUS Act would place foreign stablecoin issuers under U.S. rules, expand AML requirements to wallet providers and validators, and keep big tech firms out unless they meet strict financial and data standards. Senators from both parties want it back on the table quickly.

But not everyone is on board. Critics like Senator Elizabeth Warren warn the bill could open the door for tech giants to push into the payments space, squeezing out smaller players.

With over 50 million Americans holding crypto, the pressure is on. If the Senate cannot move on something this basic, the message to the industry may be clear: do not count on Washington for clarity anytime soon.