"Recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields have set alarm bells ringing in financial circles. The spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, a historically reliable predictor of economic downturns, is displaying unnerving signs. This indicator has accurately foreshadowed significant economic recessions throughout history, including the 2007-2008 financial crisis. As of September 10th, this spread has fallen to a worrying -1.26%, a figure that has caught the attention of market analysts and investors worldwide. But what does the Federal Reserve's recession probability model say about this...?"