The boom in solar power and electric vehicles this year is smashing the forecasts of the most bullish analysts, giving hope they are on the net-zero path the world needs. If only the same could be said of other forms of clean energy.

Take photovoltaic panels. Solar modules last month hit a record low 16.5 cents per watt, according to BloombergNEF, and will slump further to 14.5 cents by the end of the year. BloombergNEF has a conservative forecast of 367 gigawatts of solar installed this year — roughly as much as was connected in the seven years through 2017, capable of generating sufficient electricity to power Germany or Brazil. Its optimistic forecast of 563 GW in 2025 would more or less put the industry on track to reduce global emissions to zero by 2050.

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