The European Union’s probe into Beijing’s electric-vehicle subsidies is meant to protect its carmakers from a flood of cheap Chinese cars. But if it leads to tit-for-tat tariffs, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG’s biggest moneymakers will be most exposed.

For Germany’s high-end manufacturers, including Porsche AG, China has proven an insatiable market for their most expensive models, like the S-Class, 7-Series and Cayenne SUV. Those vehicles, however, are mainly imported, putting them in the line of fire if Beijing retaliates against any EU measures.

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Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Stand to Lose Most in China Tariff Row