Jim Jordan becoming next House Speaker would be 'a heavy lift': Expert

10/14/2023 04:20
Jim Jordan becoming next House Speaker would be 'a heavy lift': Expert

The House Speaker race continues after Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA.) withdrew and Rep. Austin Scott (R-GA.) emerged to challenge Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH.). Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner and Director of Economic Policy Research, belives it will be difficult for Jordan to rally sufficient bipartisan support to secure the House Speakership. With the Speaker race unsettled, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) is tasked with overseeing the vote as Speaker Pro Tempore. However, pressing global issues are arising, from Israel-Hamas tensions to Ukraine aid, requiring legislative action. Given the uncertainty around the Speaker vote, Treyz suggests current Pro Tempore McHenry becoming Speaker may be the "path of least resistance." "Remember these are the players of the game, these congressmen, but they're also the referees," Treyz tells Yahoo Finance, adding: "So when they need to change the rules they do." For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

The House Speaker race continues after Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA.) withdrew and Rep. Austin Scott (R-GA.) emerged to challenge Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH.). Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner and Director of Economic Policy Research, belives it will be difficult for Jordan to rally sufficient bipartisan support to secure the House Speakership.

With the Speaker race unsettled, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) is tasked with overseeing the vote as Speaker Pro Tempore. However, pressing global issues are arising, from Israel-Hamas tensions to Ukraine aid, requiring legislative action. Given the uncertainty around the Speaker vote, Treyz suggests current Pro Tempore McHenry becoming Speaker may be the "path of least resistance."

"Remember these are the players of the game, these congressmen, but they're also the referees," Treyz tells Yahoo Finance, adding: "So when they need to change the rules they do."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Video Transcript

JOSH LIPTON: House Republicans scrambling now to pick their next speaker. House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan now has a challenger, Congressman Austin Scott. This coming after Steve Scalise dropped out because he wasn't able to secure the votes needed to become speaker. Joining us now is Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner and Director of Economic Policy Research. So Henrietta, Scalise out, withdrew from the contest. Walk us through what happens next.

HENRIETTA TREYZ: Well, as we speak right now, the House Republican conference is going into an internal meeting to see if they can take votes and choose between their two remaining candidates as you just mentioned, Scott and Jordan. My opinion was the same today as it has been since November of last year after the midterms. I don't see how Jim Jordan gets the votes from the moderate wing of the Republican Party to get to the 217 votes that they have.

There is some optimism. Members of both parties have been alerted that votes could happen through the weekend. But it looks like a heavy lift to me. And again, I don't see how Jim Jordan gets 217 votes. So this could easily be on the table for us next week and the week after. We really need a piece of major legislation to need urgent House action. Otherwise, you're just seeing this posturing and internal Republican infighting that really has been present for years now bubbling over with this latest speaker's drama.

JULIE HYMAN: Henrietta, I have sort of a dumb question for you. What does the speaker of the House do? And if there is legislation that needs to be approved next week or the week after, does a speaker of the House need to be in place in order for that to get passed?

HENRIETTA TREYZ: Not a dumb question at all. In fact, the speaker pro tempore, which is a position that was created only in the wake of some relatively near-term events historically is Patrick McHenry. He's there, and he's been meeting with the House parliamentarian who is basically the referee to figure out how exhaustive his authority might actually be. According to the rules right now, all he's really supposed to be able to do is convene the vote for the next speaker of the House.

But obviously, now we're engaging in a war. Israel is at war. We need aid to Ukraine. We need funding for the US-Mexico border and aid to Taiwan. All of those are pressing issues that the White House is asking for legislation on as early as next week. The Senate is going to return on Monday night.

And by Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, there could be a bill that the House needs to vote on that, by the way, many members of the House want to vote on. And we don't even know if the speaker pro tempore is legally allowed to bring that bill to the floor. So it's a really smart question and one that lawmakers have been studying with the parliamentarian since McCarthy got ousted.

My opinion is that the longer this drags on, the more authority the speaker pro tempore will be authorized. One of the things that we like to say in DC is, remember, these are the players in the game, these congressmen. But they're also the referees. So when they need to change the rules, they do.

And the more dysfunctional DC gets, the longer the Republican infighting flows and we remain without a speaker, my forecast is that the more power they are going a lot to the speaker pro tempore a position and effectively create precedent that puts Patrick McHenry effectively in the speaker's seat, which is I think maybe the path of least resistance at this point.

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