This has been a bad year for food prices in the world’s poorest countries. Whether their citizens eat wheat or rice, three calamities have caused grain supplies to dry up: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its decision to abandon the Black Sea grain initiative; the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has traditionally caused poor harvests across the world; and Indian domestic politics.

Spooked by volatile foodgrain prices ahead of a general election next year, India’s government has banned or taxed exports of most kinds of rice and wheat. While India is a large producer of wheat, it really dominates the rice market: Its exports represent about 40% of the global rice trade.