After more than a decade of overbuilding and overborrowing, the moment of reckoning is here for China’s real estate market. Sales are down, prices are down, construction is down, developers are defaulting, and contagion is spreading to the shadow banking sector.

A Goldilocks outcome remains possible. Sales have fallen so far that there’s scope for more stimulus to boost demand without reinflating the speculative bubble. If that doesn’t happen and the sector continues to spiral down, a massive funding gap for developers means there’s the real possibility of a financial crisis.