UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is likely to take an ax to the welfare bill to find savings for tax cuts in next week’s Autumn Statement because room for maneuver against his fiscal rules will be “wafer thin,” according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics.

Dan Hanson, senior UK economist at Bloomberg Economics, said Hunt will have just £11 billion ($13.7 billion) to spare against his key fiscal rule, which requires debt to fall as a share of gross domestic product in the fifth year of the forecast.