The world’s biggest bond market has clawed its way back after spending chunks of 2023 underwater. Now many US debt watchers see the pathway clearing for a real revival.

The Bloomberg US Treasury Index shifted earlier this month to a positive return for the year as signs of slowing inflation and measured jobs growth unleashed a rally that sent benchmark yields tumbling from their highest in more than a decade. There have been some reversals along the way — including a mild climb in yields at the end of the holiday-shortened week — but the index is still about where it was at the start of the year and the overarching tone is constructive.