• Most analysts in survey see two more hikes to 4% deposit rate
• First cut seen in March, with high uncertainty over path ahead

The European Central Bank’s plan to maintain interest rates at their eventual peak for an extended period isn’t convincing economists, who see it starting to unravel after just six months.

A slim majority in a Bloomberg survey expects a final hike in the deposit rate in September, to 4%, before officials embark on rate cuts in March. Uncertainty about subsequent moves builds gradually, with projections for end-2024 borrowing costs ranging from 2% to 4%.