Should 2024 expect a soft landing or a recession?
12/19/2023 01:56
As part of Yahoo Finance's 2024 Investor Guide, Goldman Sachs Chief US Economist David Mericle weighs the risks that could derail the Federal Reserve's progress in the inflation fight. Though he predicts recession odds have eased to 15%, challenges remain to loom over the US economy. Mericle notes encouraging disinflation trends, saying "the soft landing has gone from on track to largely here." However, two issues left him cautious — whether inflation could be tamed without a recession, and if "regional banking stress" could prompt a crunch on credit conditions. Mericle says both concerns have abated with inflation clearly cooling and banking contagion effects more contained. Still, he warns "recession odds are never zero," and it would likely take a major "external shock" at this stage to destabilize the economy. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
As part of Yahoo Finance's 2024 Investor Guide, Goldman Sachs Chief US Economist David Mericle weighs the risks that could derail the Federal Reserve's progress in the inflation fight. Though he predicts recession odds have eased to 15%, challenges remain to loom over the US economy.
Mericle notes encouraging disinflation trends, saying "the soft landing has gone from on track to largely here." However, two issues left him cautious — whether inflation could be tamed without a recession, and if "regional banking stress" could prompt a crunch on credit conditions.
Mericle says both concerns have abated with inflation clearly cooling and banking contagion effects more contained. Still, he warns "recession odds are never zero," and it would likely take a major "external shock" at this stage to destabilize the economy.
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.