Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which began trading in the U.S. today, are not anticipated to draw in a significant amount of fresh capital; instead, they may experience a shift of up to $36 billion in inflows from existing crypto instruments, according to JPMorgan.

The breakdown includes $3 billion of inflows from bitcoin futures-based ETFs, $3-$13 billion from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and up to $15-$20 billion from retail investors transitioning from digital wallets at crypto exchanges/retail brokers to spot bitcoin ETFs, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note today. The analysts did not specify the time frame for these figures in the note.

The analysts are skeptical about some of the optimism shared by many market participants that the approval of spot …