Bond traders are growing convinced that US Treasury yields are on the brink of returning to the way they’ve traded for most of their existence — it’s the how, why and when of the normalization that keeps financial markets bouncing around.

The shift many investors bet is now underway would see the interest rate on 10-year Treasuries rise above those on US two-year notes, a steepening of the so-called yield curve that would mean banks and investors get rewarded for the risk of lending money for longer periods as is typical.