Amazon earnings preview: Expect updates on Prime Video ads and the future of AI

02/02/2024 00:17
Amazon earnings preview: Expect updates on Prime Video ads and the future of AI

Amazon reports earnings after the bell Thursday. Here's what to expect.

Amazon is scheduled to post quarterly earnings after the bell on Thursday, joining two fellow trillion-dollar giants and rounding out a week defined by high expectations and disappointment over tech results. Amazon's turn at Big Tech’s wave of reports will likely offer updates on AI development and its lucrative cloud business.

Investors will be looking for details about the growth of Amazon Web Services, in addition to insight into the company’s burgeoning ads operations. Earlier this week Amazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, began playing ads alongside movies and shows as the default option for users, who can pay extra for an ad-free version. Analysts have noted the significant potential for ad growth given the massive scale of Amazon’s built-in audience.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting for some of Amazon's most significant metrics in the company’s fiscal fourth quarter:

  • Revenue: $166.2 billion expected ($149.2 billion in Q4 2022)

  • Adjusted earnings per share: $0.78 expected ($0.03 in Q4 2022)

  • Amazon Web Services: $24.2 billion expected ($21.4 billion in Q4 2022)

  • Advertising: $14.2 billion expected ($11.6 billion in Q4 2022)

Overall, Amazon stock achieved muscular gains last year, climbing more than 80%. And just last week the stock hit 52-week highs. But the momentum has slowed since then as investors recalibrate on tech. Amazon will report alongside Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META) to wrap up Big Tech's quarterly reports.

Amazon's showing arrives just weeks after the company eliminated several hundred roles across Prime Video and MGM Studios and announced a major reduction in staff at its video game livestreaming platform, Twitch, laying off more than 500 people. Staff cuts across tech highlight the sector's painful climb down from an era of rapid expansion, as companies are still resizing and retreating from ambitious investments made during the early stages of the pandemic.

Amazon sees the potential for AI development to generate tens of billions of dollars for its cloud business. AI tools require huge amounts of data and processing power to train and run large language models and their applications, relying on cloud providers to provide vital infrastructure.

In September, the company launched its AI service, dubbed Amazon Bedrock, which allows customers to build generative AI applications through existing models offered by Anthropic, Stability AI, and Amazon itself.

FILE - The price of Amazon stock is shown on a screen at the Nasdaq MarketSite, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017, in New York. Amazon reports their earnings on Thursday, Feb. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)

The price of Amazon stock is shown on a screen at the Nasdaq MarketSite, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017, in New York. Amazon reports their earnings on Thursday, Feb. 1, 2024. (Mark Lennihan/AP Photo, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

That same month Amazon also said it would invest up to $4 billion in the AI startup Anthropic as the biggest players in tech scramble for positioning in what they see as the coming age of the technology.

Amazon Web Services, the biggest player in the cloud industry, claims about 30% of market share, followed by Microsoft (MSFT) Azure and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) Cloud. The trio collectively account for roughly two-thirds of the market.

How Wall Street will judge the performance of Amazon's cloud business depends in part on how it stacks up against Microsoft, its closest competitor, which reported cloud revenue earlier this week that beat estimates. But investors in recent days have applied a harsh rubric to tech earnings. Alphabet, another cloud and AI rival, exceeded expectations for its cloud segment. Investors, however, soured on the stock after the report, following lower-than-anticipated ad revenue.

Investors will also be looking for more detail on Amazon's vision for advertising. The company has roughly 96 million US Prime households, while a subset of that figure actively engages with Prime Video, according to MoffettNathanson. "We strongly believe that Amazon’s decision to add advertising to Prime Video will be a disruptive force to commoditized advertising video on demand (AVOD) players, siloed connected TV (CTV) platforms and non-top 20 linear cable networks," analyst Michael Morton wrote in a note to clients last week.

Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on Twitter @hshaban.

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